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A process which alters the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system (see Figure 1.3) is known as a radiative forcing mechanism (Shine et al., 1990). These may include variations in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun, solar radiation, volcanic activity and atmospheric composition. Associating a particular cause with a particular […]

Records for the last 4,500 years generally indicate that temperatures were lower than the Holocene thermal maximum. A general cooling, known as the Iron Age neoglaciation, occurred between 2,500 and 4,500 years ago. A moderate climate amelioration followed near the dawn of the Roman Empire, before a return to cooler […]

1.1. Introduction The key to understanding global climate change is to first understand what global climate is, and how it operates. This is the purpose of chapter 1. The global climate system is a consequence of and a link between the atmosphere, oceans, the ice sheets (cryosphere), living organisms (biosphere) […]

All equilibrium model simulations show a warming in the mid-troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere. It has been suggested that this contrast in trends between the troposphere and stratosphere might prove a useful detection fingerprint (Karoly, 1987, 1989). In addition, high signal-to-noise ratios have been obtained (Barnett & Schlesinger, 1987) […]

Methane (CH4) is another greenhouse gas, and is produced primarily by anaerobic (oxygen-deficient) processes such as the cultivation of rice paddies or animal digestion. It is destroyed in the lower atmosphere (troposphere) by reactions with free hydroxyl radicals (OH): CH4 + OH CH3 + H2O Like CO2, its concentration in […]

Global warming will accelerate sea-level rises due to thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of land-based ice sheets. If current GCMs projections of a 4cm per decade rise are reasonable, sea level may stand at least half a metre higher by the end of the next century. This will […]

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate in two ways, directly through the reflection and absorption of solar radiation (in both the troposphere and stratosphere), and indirectly through modifying the optical properties and lifetimes of clouds (mainly in the troposphere) (Shine et al., 1995). Estimation of aerosol radiative forcing is more complex and […]

With globally increasing temperatures, increases in global precipitation would be expected a priori, due to the greater rates of evaporation of sea surface water. Unfortunately, no reliable estimates of evaporation increase exist. One problem is the effect of varying wind speed on evaporation rates, which may or may not be […]

Although most univariate detection methods of global climate change due to an enhanced greenhouse effect have their limitations, it is likely that multivariate fingerprint methods, which involve the simultaneous use of several time series, will facilitate attribution. In its most general form one might consider the time evolution of a […]